Recent Form and Trends
* The 2020 race was cancelled for health and safety reasons
Trends
Age – 9 of the last 11 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Price – 9 of the last 11 favourites/joint favourites have won, 11/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 4 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before the Hugh McMahon Novice Chase, 9/11 winners ran within the last 29 days
Previous Course Form – 6/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Limerick, 3/11 winners had at least 1 previous win at Limerick
Previous Distance Form – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run over 23-25 furlongs, 5/11 had at least 1 previous wins over 23-25 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 10/11 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 11/11 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 9/11 winners were rated 136 or higher
Graded Wins – 3/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 9/11 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11/11 winners had at least 1 win that season
Future Form
Trends
Next Run –
3 of the last 11 winners won on their next run after the Hugh McMahon Novice Chase, 1/11 placed on their next run
4/12 winners ran in the Irish Grand National (Fairyhouse) on their next run, 1 of the 4 won, 0 placed
Rest of The Season Runs –
10 of the last 11 winners ran in at least 1 more race that season
3/11 won at least 1 more race that season, 1/11 placed in at least 1 more race that season
Punchestown Festival Run That Season –
3/11 winners ran in the Champion Novice Chase at the next Punchestown Festival, 0 of the 3 won, 1 placed
3/11 winners ran in the Handicap Novice Chase at the next Punchestown Festival, 2 of the 3 won, 0 placed