Recent Form and Trends

Trends

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 5 and 7
Price – 8 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 12/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 10 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Like A Butterfly Novice Chase, 10/12 winners ran within the last 45 days
Previous Course Form – 4/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Tipperary, 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Tipperary
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 9/12 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 5/12 winners were rated 138 or higher (7/12 didn’t have a chase rating yet)
Graded Wins – 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 12/12 winners had at least 1 win that season

Future Form

Trends

Next Run –
3 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after the Like A Butterfly Novice Chase, 4/12 placed on their next run
4/12 winners ran in the Drinmore Novice Chase (Fairyhouse) on their next run, 0 of the 4 won, 2 placed

Rest of The Season Runs –
10 of the last 12 winners ran in at least 2 more races that season
8/12 won at least 1 more race that season, 6/12 placed in at least 1 more race that season

Cheltenham Festival Run That Season –
2/12 winners ran in the National Hunt Chase at the next Cheltenham Festival, 2 of the 2 won, 0 placed
1/12 winners ran in the RSA Chase at the next Cheltenham Festival, 0 of the 1 won, 1 placed
1/12 winners ran in the Arkle Novice Chase at the next Cheltenham Festival, 0 of the 1 won, 0 placed