Recent Form and Trends

* The race was run at Southwell in 2024 and 2025

Trends

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 4 & 6
Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 10/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 5 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Winter Derby, 9/12 winners had their last run within the last 63 days
4/12 winners ran in the Winter Derby Trial (Lingfield) on their last run, 2 of the 4 won, 0 placed
3/12 winners ran in the Quebec Stakes (Lingfield) on their last run, 2 of the 3 won, 0 placed
Previous Course Form – 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Lingfield/Southwell, 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Lingfield/Southwell
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 4 previous runs over 10-11 furlongs, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 10-11 furlongs
Previous Flat Form – 10/12 winners had at least 7 previous flat runs, 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous flat wins
Rating – 11/12 winners had a rating of 106 or higher
Group Wins – 2/12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race
Season Form – 6/12 winners had at least 1 run that season, 4/12 winners had at least 1 previous win that season

Future Form

Trends

Next Run –
4 of the last 12 winners won on their next run after the Winter Derby, 3/12 placed on their next run
6/12 winners ran in the Championship Stakes (Lingfield) on their next run, 3 of the 6 won, 2 placed

Rest of Season Run’s –
10/12 winners ran in at least 2 more races that season
7/12 winners won at least 1 more race that season, 5/12 winners placed in at least 1 more race that season

Next Winter Derby Run –
5 of the last 12 winners ran again in the next years Winter Derby, 0 of the 5 won, 1 placed