Manifesto Novices Chase

Grade – 1 (Since 2012, previously Grade 2)
Course – Aintree
Race Type – Chase
Distance – 2 Miles 4 Furlongs (20F)
Ages – 5yo+
Weights – 11st 4lbs (7lb allowance for mares)
Sponsor – SSS Super Alloys

Grade 1

Recent Form and Trends

* 2020 race was abandoned for health and safety reasons

Trends

Age – 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6-8
Price – 1 of the last 11 winners were favourites, 9/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 0 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before Aintree, 8/11 winners ran within the last 30 days
5/11 winners ran in the Turners Novices Chase (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 5 won, 2 placed
3/11 winners ran in the Arkle Novice Chase (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 3 won, 0 placed
Previous Course Form – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree , 1/11 winners had a previous win at Aintree
Previous Distance Form – 8/11 winners had at least 1 previous run over 19-21 furlongs, 6/11 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/11 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles, 10/11 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
Previous Chase Form – 11/11 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 10/11 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/11 winners were rated 150 or higher
Graded Wins – 7/11 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 11/11 winners had at least 4 runs that season, 10/11 winners had at least 2 wins that season

Future Form

Trends

Next Run
1 of the last 11 winners won on their next run after Aintree, 3/11 placed on their next run
2/11 winners ran in the Old Roan Chase (Aintree) on their next run, 0 of the 2 won, 1 placed
2/11 winners ran in the Champion Novice Chase (Punchestown) on their next run, 0 of the 2 won, 0 placed

Rest of The Season Runs
5 of the last 11 winners ran in at least 1 more race that season
1/11 won at least 1 more race that season, 0/11 placed in at least 1 more race that season

Next Aintree Festival Run
5/11 winners ran at the next Aintree Festival, 0 of the 5 won, 2 placed
2/5 ran in the Melling Chase at the next Aintree Festival, 0 of the 2 won, 1 placed
2/5 ran in the Bowl Chase at the next Aintree Festival, 0 of the 2 won, 1 placed